8. SPOILER ALERT

It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred.

— Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis

Bad news doesn’t get easier with time.

I was once tasked as a Casualty Assistance Officer, one of the unfortunates whose job it is to visit the next of kin of a deceased service member to tell them their loved one has died. One tip to an effective, yet compassionate notification is to use plain language, because phrases like, “they didn’t make it,” or, “they passed away,” are not clear and leave a slim opening to a person finding out their loved one is dead. And, while that opening may not seem like much to a non-grieving person reading this in the light of day, a recently bereaved person finding out their world will never be the same again will seize on it like a life preserver.

I watched it happen, saw a fellow officer tell a young lady her boyfriend ‘didn’t make it’ in an effort to soften the blow, only for her to ask where he was and how badly he’d been hurt. My colleague stammered – this was exactly what we’d been warned not to do! – and it was me who jumped in to say her boyfriend was dead. Each word a nail in the coffin of that young lady’s hope, which dimmed in her eyes and then went out as I watched.

So, here’s the bad news:

In 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that each of the four decades from 1980 to 2020 had been successively warmer than any previous decade since 1850¹. The rate of ice loss in glaciers and ice sheets very likely increased in the twenty years before the report was released², and not only did the world’s oceans warm at increasing rates³, they became more acidic⁴, and sea levels rose at higher-than-average levels⁵. From this data and more – and there’s a lot more – the IPCC assessed in 2018 that global temperatures had already risen 1°C from pre-industrial levels[1]. Overall, the scale of changes and current state of the Earth’s climate system are unprecedented in thousands of years⁶.

In terms of impact, it’s important to note that predictions about future climate are difficult, not least because effects will vary from region to region. The Earth’s climate is, after all, an incredibly complex system. Still, while it may be difficult to predict exactly how climate change will play out, the expected consequences are almost all bad. Here’s a few:

With a 2°C rise in temperature, many parts of the world will almost certainly see more extreme weather events, like droughts, heavy precipitation, and floods⁷, or forest fires, such as the 2020 wildfires in California⁸ or the 2019-20 fires in Australia, where over 17 million hectares of land went up in flames⁹. Plus, hundreds of millions of additional people will likely suffer from water scarcity¹⁰. Higher temperatures are also expected to cause massive upheaval to land biomes, widespread extinction of various insects, plants and animal species is likely, and those that survive may see their ranges dramatically limited, including pollinating insects like bees. Conversely, some invasive species may see their ranges increase, such as ticks, who have spread farther north into Canada, bringing tick-borne diseases with them¹¹. 

The ocean will likely get more acidic, coral reefs will progressively disappear, and there could be widespread loss of fish. And, of course, sea level rise will continue, along with the coastal flooding, beach erosion, and storms projected to become both more frequent and more severe¹², such as during the 2020 hurricane season. Added to all of these climate-related effects are the second-order impacts on humans, such as heat-related illness. Pandemics, like COVID-19, could become more frequent occurrences¹³. Coastal populations will likely be forced to relocate, or at least adapt, and the associated economic costs of climate related damages will almost certainly get higher and higher.

These anticipated effects are so serious they brought the world’s governments together in Paris in 2015 to discuss how to decrease global warming, which led to the Paris Agreement, a pledge by the world’s governments – most of them, anyway – to keep global temperature rise well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels¹⁴.

Why 2°C? Well, that number came from W.D. Nordhaus, an economist, who suggested this target in the 1970s¹⁵. At the time, 2°C was a bit of a wild-ass guess. Turns out the projected effects of a two degree increase in temperature make it as good a target as any other. Consider that with a 2°C rise in global temperature, most land regions will experience more extreme and more frequent heatwaves, with temperatures in the already warm mid-latitudes expected to jump by up to 4°C¹⁶. An event like the 2021 heatwave, which killed hundreds across the western United States and Canada, which buckled sidewalks, melted roads and set conditions for unchecked wildfires that destroyed whole villages, could happen every 5 to 10 years in a future with a 2°C temperature rise, as opposed to once every 1000 years¹⁷, and that’s just one example.

There are many more anticipated impacts, and if none of them sound like good things, it’s because they’re almost certainly not. What’s more, the assessments in the 2021 IPCC report are not outliers. By some studies, there is more than 99% consensus about human-caused climate change in peer-reviewed scientific literature¹⁸. 

The reality, then, is that there is virtually no serious scientific doubt from observable data that average global surface temperatures are rising. But if more proof is somehow required, then perhaps the best non-scientific sign that the climate crisis is real is that banks¹⁹ and insurance companies²⁰ are adjusting how they do business to take climate change into account, which goes to show that ‘Follow the money,’ remains as reliable a saying as it ever was. The crisis is happening and, unchecked, will have long term and far-reaching impacts, which makes it one of the most important problems around which all generations should mobilize.

That’s why many youth-led organizations have already come together to address these problems, like One Up Action, a group of intersectional youth advocates who serve marginalized young people by empowering them to act within their communities to tackle the climate crisis²¹. But that’s just a start, and to navigate this future, our societies will almost certainly require more people and organizations who are willing to put the interests of their communities ahead of themselves.

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[1] ‘Pre-industrial levels’ generally refers to temperatures in the period 1850-1900.

1. IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. In Press.

2. Velicogna, I., Mohajerani, Y., A, G., Landerer, F., Mouginot, J., Noel, B., Rignot, E., Sutterly, T., van den Broeke, M., van Wessem, M., Wiese, D. (2020). Continuity of ice sheet mass loss in Greenland and Antarctica from the GRACE and GRACE Follow‐On missions. Geophysical Research Letters (Volume 47, Issue 8, 28 April 2020, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL087291, accessed 8 Nov 2020.

3. National Centers for Environmental Information, “Global Ocean Heat and Salt Content,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/global-ocean-heat-content/index.html, accessed 8 Nov 2020.

4. PMEL Carbon Group, “What is Ocean Acidification?” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/What+is+Ocean+Acidification%3F, accessed 8 Nov 2020.

5. R. S. Nerem, B. D. Beckley, J. T. Fasullo, B. D. Hamlington, D. Masters and G. T. Mitchum. "Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018, https://www.pnas.org/content/115/9/2022.short, accessed 8 Nov 2020.

6. IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.

7. Alan Buis, “A Degree of Concern: Why Global Temperatures Matter,” NASA: Global Climate Change, June 19, 2019, https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures-matter/, accessed 9 Nov 2020.

8. Anne C. Mulkern, “Fast-Moving California Wildfires Boosted by Climate Change,” Scientific American, August 24, 2020, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fast-moving-california-wildfires-boosted-by-climate-change/, accessed 9 Nov 2020.

9. Lisa Richard, Nigel Brew, and Lizzie Smith, ‘2019–20 Australian bushfires—frequently asked questions: a quick guide,’ Parliament of Australia, 12 March 2020, https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/Quick_Guides/AustralianBushfires, accessed November 15, 2021.

10. Alan Buis, “A Degree of Concern: Why Global Temperatures Matter,” NASA: Global Climate Change, June 19, 2019, https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures-matter/, accessed 9 Nov 2020.

11. Bouchard C, Dibernardo A, Koffi J, Wood H, Leighton PA, Lindsay LR, “Increased risk of tick-borne diseases with climate and environmental changes,” Canada Communicable Disease Report, 2019; 45(4):83–9. https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/reports-publications/canada-communicable-disease-report-ccdr/monthly-issue/2019-45/issue-4-april-4-2019/article-2-increased-risk-tick-borne-diseases-climate-change.html, accessed 9 Nov 2020.

12. Alan Buis, “A Degree of Concern: Why Global Temperatures Matter,” NASA: Global Climate Change, June 19, 2019, https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures-matter/, accessed 9 Nov 2020.

13. David M. Mores, Anthony S. Fauci, “Emerging Pandemic Diseases: How We Got to COVID-19,” Perspective, Vol 182 (5), September 3, 2020, https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)31012-6#secsectitle0065, accessed 9 Nov 2020.

14. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, “The Paris Agreement: What is the Paris Agreement?,” UNFCCC.net, https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement, accessed 1 Jun 2023.

15. Jaeger, C.C. and Jaeger, J., “Three views of two degrees,” Reg Environ Change 11 (Suppl 1), 15–26 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0190-9, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-010-0190-9, accessed 4 Mar 2020.

16. Alan Buis, “A Degree of Concern: Why Global Temperatures Matter,” NASA: Global Climate Change, June 19, 2019, https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures-matter/, accessed 9 Nov 2020.

17. Philip, S. Y., Kew, S. F., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Anslow, F. S., Seneviratne, S. I., Vautard, R., Coumou, D., Ebi, K. L., Arrighi, J., Singh, R., van Aalst, M., Pereira Marghidan, C., Wehner, M., Yang, W., Li, S., Schumacher, D. L., Hauser, M., Bonnet, R., Luu, L. N., Lehner, F., Gillett, N., Tradowsky, J. S., Vecchi, G. A., Rodell, C., Stull, R. B., Howard, R., and Otto, F. E. L.: Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1689–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, 2022, ESD - Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021 (copernicus.org), accessed 1 Jun 2023.

18. Mark Lynas, Benjamin Z. Houlton and Simon Perry, “Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature,” Environmental Research Letters, Vol 16, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966/pdf, accessed May 4, 2022.

19. One Up Action, ‘Home,’ www.oneupaction.org, accessed November 15, 2021.

20. Bank of Canada - Banque du Canada, Climate change is a big issue for central banks, https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/11/climate-change-is-a-big-issue-for-central-banks/, accessed 1 Jun 2023.

21. Don Jergler, “Climate Change and the Reinsurance Implications,” in Insurance Journal, June 13, 2019, https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2019/06/13/529201.htm, accessed 2 Mar 2020.