46. OPTIONS
The Chinese use two brush strokes to write the word ‘crisis.’ One brush stroke stands for danger; the other for opportunity. In a crisis, be aware of the danger – but recognize the opportunity.
- John F. Kennedy
In the military, there’s a type of organization called a reserve. This is typically a unit or force held out of battle as a hedge against risk1. When things start to go wrong, particularly in unforeseen ways like an enemy showing up where they’re not supposed to, then the reserve can be dispatched to address threats before they get too far out of hand. This approach is one half of a strategy that Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls barbelling, and it involves avoiding or mitigating risk in areas where there are potentially negative impacts2.
There’s another half to this strategy though, which is that we must be prepared to seize fleeting opportunities with potential positive impacts. A reserve can be used in this manner as well, to exploit success or take advantage of an opening. In other words, a reserve protects our option space.
Commanders will sometimes resist creating a reserve, especially when they don’t have a lot of resources. They’ll say they don’t have enough people to leave some of them out of battle. Unfortunately, this is normally the opposite of what they should do, because in general, the more uncertain the situation, the larger the reserve needed.
Nonetheless, the argument of few resources applies to individuals as well, because really, how much do most of us have? Perhaps a small rainy-day fund of money we can afford to lose, or, more likely, only our time. That’s still okay though, because time is sometimes all that’s needed to create options.
Once-in-a-lifetime opportunities are rare for a reason, how many get missed because a person couldn’t spare a couple of hours or a day? Because they were too busy to even notice an opening when it occurred? There are always opportunities to serve, so taking advantage of these opportunities is often as simple as keeping our options open.
There is one risk, however, when going after an opportunity, and that’s the reality that not all opportunities pan out. Maybe we lend a helping hand, except it doesn’t make a difference. That’s okay, it really is, as long as whatever we gamble on exploiting an opportunity is something whose loss we can afford. But the risk is actually quite low because when it comes to serving others, particularly when it comes to preparing for climate change, there are always rewards. As Anne Frank said, “No one has ever become poor by giving.” In the end, whether a reserve is identified or not, do something. Keep moving, because movement is life.
Headquarters, Department of the Army, October 2022, Operations (FM 3-0), https://armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs/DR_a/ARN36290-FM_3-0-000-WEB-2.pdf, accessed 5 Jun 2023.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder, New York, Random House Trade Publications: 2014.